HOW IOWA CONTROLS THE UNIVERSE

Pssst, I have a secret ... your vote in the in the next Presidential Primary Election doesn't count. That's right, your vote is worth about as much as a US dollar. You can read all the newspapers you want, watch dozens of debates, and analyze national polls until your blue in the face. But passionate as you might be, Iowa is going to decide who is your best candidate for president. Because you see, there is a dirty little secret -- that everyone knows -- and that's the fact that whoever comes out ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire, and (to a lesser extent) South Carolina wins the whole shebang. It doesn't matter that two minutes before those primaries you are in love with someone else. Nope, you are going to see what Iowa does and then you are going to jump off the same cliff.

Now, I'm no psychologist, but it sure seems odd to me that California with its gazillion people would care what some tiny midwest state thinks. But care we do. If you don't believe me, just ask Howard Dean. He was my favorite in 2004 and was ahead in all national polls going into the primaries. But Iowans and New Hampshir...ites(?) decided that Kerry was more "electable," so Dean was done. Super Tuesday was Super Pointless.

This phenomenon troubles me on many levels, but the thing that disturbs me more than anything is the fact that Iowans and New Hampshir...shiers(?) are downright arrogant about it. A few months ago, I was watching C-SPAN shoot interviews with some ordinary people in an Iowa restaurant after a candidate had just eaten there. You know the type of establishment I'm referring to: the one where Fox News likes to point out how the Pantsuit didn't leave a tip (she did). Anyway, I don't remember the exact quotes, but the interviewer asked these people what they thought of so-and-so candidate being ahead in the polls or whatever, and the responses were almost universally the same ... Joe Iowan sitting on the bar stool would say something like, "I don't care what the rest of the country thinks. The candidates need to come here to Iowa, talk directly to me, and we will decide who is the best." Great. So, let me ask you a question California: do you think Joe Iowan isn't going into the primary with a bias against the front-runner? Is that any better than having a bias towards them?

After a rockin evening at Sings Like Hell, I had a debate about this topic with Big Table. It went something like this ...

AVERAGE MAN: I think there should be a national primary.
BIG TABLE: I disagree.
AVERAGE MAN: No, I'm right.
BIG TABLE: You're so smart. How could I have ever doubted you?

At least, that's how the conversation went in my head. Seriously though, Big Table points out that a national primary would simply trade Iowans deciding your vote for money deciding your vote. In other words, if we don't have the checks and balances of the Iowa Caucuses, then the nation will just pick whoever has the most ads on TV. Okay, I'll buy that for a dollar. However, I think there is a solution for both of us ... Jonathan Soros recently wrote a New York Times Editorial titled Vote Early, Count Often in which he argues that we should have national primaries but give all people the option to mail in their ballots early. And we should count the ballots as they arrive instead of waiting until election day. That way, eager and informed voters can still give a certain candidate "momentum" going into the election and counter the big money. The key, though, is that it's national and that we all have the opportunity to fill the role previously held by a handful of Iowans and New Hampsh...anites(?).

Whatever the solution, though, we must have some flavor of a national primary. Iowa has a population of around 3 million; California has a population of approximately 34 million. Yet, we let them determine our fate in these oh so important elections. That would sort of be like Isla Vista choosing Santa Barbara's mayor every time. It's simply not fair to us, and it's not fair to a candidate who runs a rock solid national campaign for 12 months and then has one bad day in Iowa. In the case of Howard Dean, apparently Joe Iowan didn't like all those "kids" coming into their state and telling them for whom to vote. Note that Dean had a strong base of young supporters who canvassed in Iowa. How dare they?

But don't think Iowa and New Hampshire will go down without a fight. After a bunch of other states moved up their primaries this year, you would have thought we kicked all the IA and NH dogs in the face. They immediately followed suit and moved up their primaries as well ... because of course, it's their god given right to decide who the rest of the country should like.