GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASH

In case you haven't noticed, Southern California is on fire ... and it's bad. By some estimates, over 500000 people evacuated their homes during the height of the disaster. And should you falsely assume that Santa Barbara was spared this recent tragedy, we received a not so gentle reminder of our own Zaca Fire when Santa Ana winds whipped-up a bunch of ash, which inspired health officials to insist we stay indoors for several days. Cough!

On 60 Minutes a couple weeks ago, there was a great segment on the increase in frequency and intensity of wildfires over the last few years. In the show, it was pointed out that what would have been considered extreme fires a decade ago are common place today. And the key question it seems people are still a little afraid to ask is whether or not the cause is global warming. The 60 Minutes report definitely implied that was the case, although the "liberal media" couldn't avoid making the disclaimer that these "particular" fires couldn't necessarily be linked to climate change. Whatever. The thing I found the most telling, however, was the point at which Scott Pelley asked the lead firefighter about global warming skeptics, and his response was something to the effect of, "Well, you won't find any in our profession." If the 9/11 heroes believe it, shouldn't everybody?

The facts are overwhelming. If you read Joseph Romm's Huffington Post entry last week, you will see that this is exactly what has been predicted by many scientists in their climate change models. He starts off by pointing out that ....

Global warming makes wildfires more likely and more destructive -- as many scientific studies have concluded. Why? Global warming leads to more intense droughts, hotter weather, earlier snowmelt (hence less humid late summers and early autumns), and more tree infestations (like the pine beetle). That means wildfires are a dangerous amplifying feedback, whereby global warming causes more wildfires, which release carbon dioxide, thereby accelerating global warming.

Yet, unbelievably, there are still deniers out there who are determined to bury their heads in the ash and blame natural weather patterns or immigration or some such nonsense. None the less, the proof keeps mounting. In his post, Romm goes on to quote the August 2006 Science cover story, "Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity" ...

... virtually all climate-model projections indicate that warmer springs and summers will occur over the region in coming decades. These trends will reinforce the tendency toward early spring snowmelt and longer fire seasons. This will accentuate conditions favorable to the occurrence of large wildfires, amplifying the vulnerability the region has experienced since the mid-1980s ... If the average length and intensity of summer drought increases in the Northern Rockies and mountains elsewhere in the western United States, an increased frequency of large wildfires will lead to changes in forest composition and reduced tree densities, thus affecting carbon pools ...

This leads me to everyone's favorite Santa Barbara topical topic: The Light Blue Line Project. If you don't know, this was a nice, minimal cost effort to paint a blue line around the city showing where water levels might be if computer models predicting sea level rise were to play out. Good idea, right? I thought it was, and so did many of us who think it's important to raise awareness of global climate change. But sadly, the project was killed by a vocal group of people who thought the line might affect property values. In fact, some people were so angry that it apparently inspired all five Santa Barbara City Council challengers to jump into the race and oppose it. Here's what I said on Blogabarbara regarding the topic ...

Doesn't the blue line project really show the problem with the global warming debate in general? ... People are concerned about it, but they don't want to take any action if it adversely affects them in any way. In this case, it's just the "idea" of global warming's effect on SB that has these people up in arms. Shouldn't they (and all of us) be more worried about the real effects?

Here's the lesson, folks ... you could ignore the line but you could not ignore the fire. And you will not be able to ignore the other effects of global warming. So, let's stop ignoring and start doing.